I was a Research Professor at Northwestern University Medical School in the Department of Emergency Medicine, with multiple affiliations in the Department of Medicine, and an Adjunct Professor of Academic Psychology at the University of Illinois at Chicago. One of my primary areas of expertise (including the focus of my PhD) was antecedents of heart … Continue reading FORUM: Cardiac Arrest
Author: paulyarnold
FORUM: Level-1
I first flew model rockets when I was in elementary school, but didn’t have opportunity to advance to more powerful machines until much later in life. When I joined the Tripoli Rocketry Association (TRA) thirty years later I was surprised and excited to learn how hobby rocketry had advanced during my hiatus. I began building … Continue reading FORUM: Level-1
Implementing ODA from Within Stata: Evaluating Test-Retest Reliability of Positive and Negative Emotional States, vs. Personality Traits, Assessed Using Likert Scales, for Males vs. Females
Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. and Ariel Linden, Dr.P.H. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC and Linden Consulting Group, LLC This paper illustrates testing directional hypotheses for test-retest Likert ratings of positive and negative emotional states and personality traits for males and females, using the Stata package for implementing ODA. View journal article
FORUM: My First Wahoo
I was living my dream to be an angler aboard a long-range, stand-up, ten-day, deep-sea fishing trip departing in October from America’s Cup Harbor in San Diego. I’d been preparing for two years for this trip while recuperating from a cardiac arrest, reading everything I could find and mail-ordering equipment I’d need on the trip. … Continue reading FORUM: My First Wahoo
Executing ODA from Within Stata: Combining Random Forests and ODA to Estimate Treatment Effects for Multi-Valued Treatments (Invited)
Ariel Linden, Dr. P.H. Linden Consulting Group, LLC This paper demonstrates how the random forest algorithm can be used in conjunction with ODA to estimate treatment effects for multivalued treatments using the new Stata package for implementing ODA. View journal article
FORUM: Friends and Enemies
A second-year graduate student at the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC), I was working on completing most of my remaining mandatory coursework, and compiling the literature needed to write my proposal for a Master of Arts degree in academic health psychology. At that time literature reviews were conducted manually in the library—there was no … Continue reading FORUM: Friends and Enemies
Implementing ODA from Within Stata: Assessing Split-Half Reliability Using a Polychotomous Attribute
Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. and Ariel Linden, Dr. P.H. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC & Linden Consulting Group, LLC This paper illustrates testing a directional (i.e., confirmatory) hypotheses for a split-half reliability study using a polychotomous attribute having four categories, via the Stata package for implementing ODA. View journal article
Implementing ODA from Within Stata: Assessing Parallel-Forms Reliability Using a Binary and an Ordered Attribute
Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. and Ariel Linden, Dr. P.H. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC & Linden Consulting Group, LLC This paper illustrates testing a directional (i.e., confirmatory) hypotheses for a parallel-forms reliability study using a binary and an ordered measure, via the Stata package for implementing ODA. View journal article
Executing ODA from Within Stata: Combining Boosted Regression and ODA to Estimate Treatment Effects for Multi-Valued Treatments
Ariel Linden, Dr. P.H. and Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. Linden Consulting Group, LLC & Optimal Data Analysis, LLC This paper demonstrates how boosted regression can be used in conjunction with ODA to estimate treatment effects for multivalued treatments using the new Stata package for implementing ODA. View journal article
FORUM: Joyful Surprise
I was born in the dawn of the space race, 15 months before the USSR launched the first artificial Earth satellite, Sputnik 1, into an elliptical low Earth orbit. The excitement of the ensuing space race—what it required of and discovered for humanity, influenced the course of my life until today. My parents said, though … Continue reading FORUM: Joyful Surprise
Implementing ODA from Within Stata: Confirmatory and Exploratory Inter-Rater Reliability Hypothesis with a Three-Category Ordinal Rating
Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. and Ariel Linden, Dr. P.H. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC & Linden Consulting Group, LLC This paper illustrates testing directional (confirmatory) and non-directional (exploratory) hypotheses for an inter-rater reliability study using a three-category ordinal measure, via the Stata package for implementing ODA. View journal article
ODA Model Perfectly Predicts S&P 500 Declines of 20% or Greater
Paul R. Yarnold. Ph.D. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio assesses mean inflation-adjusted earnings in the prior decade.1 Five times over the past 150 years this index consistently exceeded 30 during a bull market run. Two times were during the Great Depression and the “dot-com” bubble, and both resulted in record declines … Continue reading ODA Model Perfectly Predicts S&P 500 Declines of 20% or Greater
Implementing ODA from Within Stata: Exploratory Hypothesis, Three-Category Class Variable, Continuous Attribute
Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. and Ariel Linden, Dr. P.H. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC & Linden Consulting Group, LLC This paper describes how to test a non-directional (exploratory) hypothesis for a design relating a three-category class (“dependent”) variable and a continuous attribute vis-à-vis the Stata package for implementing ODA. View journal article
FORUM: Monkey Island
Ross and I were on our second trip to Panama for another week of in-shore angling. The weather was calm so we did a bit of exploring in-between fishing stops. A guide spoke of a near-by place called “Monkey Island.” He said he could take us on a short skiff ride to a small island … Continue reading FORUM: Monkey Island
FORUM: Interviewing
Assessing the Authenticity of an Interviewee In a 2014 Auto Bild interview, Elon Musk revealed he assesses the authenticity of an interviewee’s claimed experience by asking for a detailed description of the most difficult problem(s) the interviewee previously worked on and solved. According to Musk, “The people who really solved the problem know exactly how they solved … Continue reading FORUM: Interviewing
FORUM: Shock
We were wrapping-up an eight-day October fishing trip. Having finished dinner we were heading home, hoping to return to dock in 36 hours. Wind was howling, waves were chaotic, most everyone was in their bunk. My new friend Chris was rinsing some equipment in the basin of the aft (rear), starboard (“right-hand”), head (bathroom). He … Continue reading FORUM: Shock
FORUM: My First Cow
I was on my first 11-day trip. Leaving from San Diego in December, we were heading for traditional “big-tuna” water in which large yellowfin tuna (YFT) were caught in the past. Mature YFT are among the most powerful, fastest-swimming fish species that stand-up anglers can realistically hope to catch using a traditional “under the arm” … Continue reading FORUM: My First Cow
FORUM: Predicting Sea-Level Rise
An accumulation of current research hypothesizes that if global warming continues at the current pace then sea-level rise will probably surpass the most extreme projections. Consideration of two incontrovertible observations magnifies the veracity of this proclamation. First, the assumption that the increase in future global warming will continue at the current pace is invalid. Warming … Continue reading FORUM: Predicting Sea-Level Rise
FORUM: Exercise on Deck
Half a century of learning and practicing transformed me into an excellent big-game fisherman. Well-trained and equipped, and highly-experienced, my hand and foot reflexes were fast, my technique was classic, and I was strong and flexible. I had good endurance, hiking seven miles daily in Point Loma—locally called “Tunaville.” In the mornings when the overnight … Continue reading FORUM: Exercise on Deck
FORUM: Preventing Seasickness
As a young teenager in the early 1970s I sailed on three different half-day fishing trips departing from Art’s Landing in Newport Beach, California. I sought Pacific bonito—a staple component of my family’s diet: fresh we loved it grilled, otherwise it was delicious smoked. Affectionately nicknamed Boneheads—perhaps in tribute to their appreciation of bait, bonito … Continue reading FORUM: Preventing Seasickness
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