When I began writing this comment, according to the US debt clock (https://www.usdebtclock.org/): US National Debt = $27.8 trillion dollars; and US Workforce = 150 million workers (125 million full-time). Dividing the US National Debt by the total number of US workers reveals that every working US citizen owes $185,333 to the US government—just to … Continue reading FORUM: US Debt
Author: paulyarnold
FORUM: Initial Findings of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial Are Confounded
The initial report on concurrent Phase-3 clinical trials assessing safety and efficacy of Oxford-AstraZeneca (Ox-AZ) COVID-19 vaccine is a superb example of Simpson’s Paradox—arguably the greatest threat to validity of statistical analysis in empirical science. I discuss the confounded Ox-AZ analysis in the context of the prevention of paradoxical findings. The Insidious Problem of Simpson’s … Continue reading FORUM: Initial Findings of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial Are Confounded
FORUM: Tea Time with Yarnold
I was in my second year as an Assistant Professor of Medicine at Northwestern University Medical School. I worked in the Department of General Internal Medicine, which addresses an enormous range of ailments, conditions and situations. Simultaneously I held a position as an Adjunct Assistant Professor of Academic Psychology at the University of Illinois at … Continue reading FORUM: Tea Time with Yarnold
FORUM: First Professional Call
I was quite young—I can’t reliably be very precise. I moved so often during some of my early years that my memory of space and time are disoriented. Everyone who was with me then has passed away. Thus any estimates made of dates and ages during high-flux periods are likely to be inaccurate. I’d guess … Continue reading FORUM: First Professional Call
FORUM: Nicknames
I was a soon-to-be third-year graduate student in academic psychology, in the school which was initiated by one of my top-ten heroes, Sir Isaac Newton: his studies of the apparent movement of stars in the sky became the field of vision psychophysiology. I had many brilliant, talented, fun friends in the psychology graduate program of … Continue reading FORUM: Nicknames
FORUM: Recognizing Gifts
Two dear friends listened to me read aloud my post, “Step-by-Step” (https://odajournal.com/2021/01/02/forum-step-by-step/). They asked me if I recalled when others first began to recognize “gifts” which I was given. I had never considered this question, but I was pleasantly surprised to immediately recall two such incidences. As I began to write this story, I recalled … Continue reading FORUM: Recognizing Gifts
FORUM: Level-3
“Level-3” (L3) is the most advanced certification level that an amateur rocketeer can achieve from the Tripoli Rocketry Association (TRA: https://www.tripoliwisconsin.org/), or from the National Association of Rocketry (NAR: https://www.nar.org/). Only those rocketeers possessing L3 certification are authorized to fly the largest classes of motors. Rocket motors are broadly categorized by the total energy produced … Continue reading FORUM: Level-3
FORUM: BAR
My fascination with hobby rocketry began in Arizona (4th grade), and resurfaced in Virginia (7th grade): both times I experimented with low-power rockets. I never wished to stop working with rockets, but my family moved often—usually to places which were not amenable to the flying of model rockets. Fast-forward to 2005, and I just survived … Continue reading FORUM: BAR
FORUM: Step-by-Step
I was a 4th grade student in public school in Sierra Vista, which at that time was a small but growing Arizona town: https://visit.sierravistaaz.gov/. The house was located at the outskirts of town—we were feet from the Sonoran Desert: https://www.desertmuseum.org/desert/sonora.php. Dad was a mathematical statistician from the University of Chicago. He worked long hours in … Continue reading FORUM: Step-by-Step
FORUM: Chicago Mini-Tsunami
A large body of research from around the globe reports that same-day barometric pressure and temperature are related to bone and muscle pain ratings made by humans. • https://odajournal.com/2013/09/20/modeling-individual-reactivity-in-serial-designs-changes-in-weather-and-physical-symptoms-in-fibromyalgia/. This is as (perhaps even more) apropos for bony fresh- and salt-water fish, and it may be particularly true for freshwater species living in shallow, constricted … Continue reading FORUM: Chicago Mini-Tsunami
FORUM: A New Year’s Tradition
Two top fliers in the Tripoli Rocketry Association (TRA) high-power rocket (HPR) club of which I am a member (https://www.tripoliwisconsin.org/), and the only rocketeers having their own radio call codes, were Mike (505) and his friend Zupe (555). Mike is a master amateur field engineer; an expert in field and launch systems preparation and operation, … Continue reading FORUM: A New Year’s Tradition
FORUM: Power-Lining Coho Salmon
Coho salmon are a popular game fish species in the States bordering Lake Michigan, including Illinois (https://www.ifishillinois.org/species/CHO.php); Michigan (https://bettsguideservice.com/michigan-weekly-dnr-fishing-reports-for-salmon/); Indiana (https://www.lake-link.com/articles/6/silver-run-lake-michigan-coho-migration/); and last but not least, Wisconsin (https://dnr.wi.gov/topic/fishing/documents/species/cohosalmon.pdf). Coho are a prized species targeted by shore anglers. Catching them from shore is possible because small groups of coho cruise the shoreline within the range of … Continue reading FORUM: Power-Lining Coho Salmon
FORUM: Match the Hatch
My fishing compadre Tony taught me to fish Lake Michigan salmonids from shore, in locations within a one-day fishing/round-trip-car-drive from northern Chicago. Typically the best fishing required travelling south to Michigan (Berrien Springs at the Dam, St. Joseph River), or travelling north to Wisconsin (Waukegan, Kenosha). In our first trip we successfully targeted Chinook salmon … Continue reading FORUM: Match the Hatch
FORUM: Big Fish
I often recall my “earliest” memory from six decades ago—the first episode in my life about which I have vivid recall of my intellectual and emotional responses. Prior to this event I never heard of nor saw any media reports about fishing. We had no TV. I didn’t know anything about nets. In the absence … Continue reading FORUM: Big Fish
FORUM: King Salmon in the Root River
For decades I monitored the start of the fall salmonid spawn run in north-eastern Illinois and south-eastern Wisconsin, along dammed lake-run rivers (and one power-plant discharge channel) spilling into Lake Michigan. When the water flow rate is high these streams propel scents associated with spawning fish out into the Lake, leaving a “trail of crumbs” … Continue reading FORUM: King Salmon in the Root River
FORUM: Lucky Fishing Pants
My first encounter with a brown trout happened accidentally in October, in Chicago, at Navy Pier. A few restaurants were open there then, otherwise the Pier was in the early stages of rehabilitative construction. I was there to see a friend who was assigned to a docked river-cruising gunboat. When I arrived I noticed a … Continue reading FORUM: Lucky Fishing Pants
Mask Mandates Can Rapidly and Efficiently Limit COVID-19 Spread: Month-Over-Month Effectiveness of Governmental Policies in Reducing the Number of New COVID-19 Cases in 37 US States and the District of Columbia
Michael J. Maloney, Nathaniel J. Rhodes & Paul R. Yarnold Proof School, Midwestern University & Optimal Data Analysis LLC SARS-CoV-2 is the beta-coronavirus responsible for COVID-19. Facemask use has been qualitatively associated with reduced COVID-19 cases, but no study has quantitatively assessed the impact of government mask mandates (MM) on new COVID-19 cases across multiple … Continue reading Mask Mandates Can Rapidly and Efficiently Limit COVID-19 Spread: Month-Over-Month Effectiveness of Governmental Policies in Reducing the Number of New COVID-19 Cases in 37 US States and the District of Columbia
Mask Mandate Prevented COVID-19 Deaths in Minnesota
Michael J. Maloney Proof School As the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US increased, various policies were enacted in an effort to slow the spread of the pandemic. As sufficient data accumulate over time, the impact of policy on public health outcomes may be statistically evaluated. The present paper uses ODA to evaluate the … Continue reading Mask Mandate Prevented COVID-19 Deaths in Minnesota
MegaODA software within R: Package now available on GitHub
To run the MegaODA software within R, download the ODA package for R available at GitHub and created by Dr. Nathaniel J. Rhodes and Dr. Paul Yarnold. This package serves as an interface for the MegaODA software suite. To utilize this package obtain a licensed copy of the MegaODA software. Once MegaODA is obtained and … Continue reading MegaODA software within R: Package now available on GitHub
Novometric Temporal Analysis of Monthly Otolaryngology Service Consults Over Five Consecutive Years
Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC Statistically unmotivated exploratory parametric analysis reported that the mean number of monthly consults at an academic otolaryngology service in 2014-2015 was significantly lower than in 2017-2018, suggesting a trend involving increasing numbers of consults over time. Evaluating these data, exploratory novometric temporal analysis identified a globally optimal … Continue reading Novometric Temporal Analysis of Monthly Otolaryngology Service Consults Over Five Consecutive Years
