FORUM: Initial Findings of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial Are Confounded

The initial report on concurrent Phase-3 clinical trials assessing safety and efficacy of Oxford-AstraZeneca (Ox-AZ) COVID-19 vaccine is a superb example of Simpson’s Paradox—arguably the greatest threat to validity of statistical analysis in empirical science. I discuss the confounded Ox-AZ analysis in the context of the prevention of paradoxical findings. The Insidious Problem of Simpson’s … Continue reading FORUM: Initial Findings of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial Are Confounded

FORUM: Tea Time with Yarnold

I was in my second year as an Assistant Professor of Medicine at Northwestern University Medical School. I worked in the Department of General Internal Medicine, which addresses an enormous range of ailments, conditions and situations. Simultaneously I held a position as an Adjunct Assistant Professor of Academic Psychology at the University of Illinois at … Continue reading FORUM: Tea Time with Yarnold

FORUM: Recognizing Gifts

Two dear friends listened to me read aloud my post, “Step-by-Step” (https://odajournal.com/2021/01/02/forum-step-by-step/). They asked me if I recalled when others first began to recognize “gifts” which I was given. I had never considered this question, but I was pleasantly surprised to immediately recall two such incidences. As I began to write this story, I recalled … Continue reading FORUM: Recognizing Gifts

FORUM: Level-3

“Level-3” (L3) is the most advanced certification level that an amateur rocketeer can achieve from the Tripoli Rocketry Association (TRA: https://www.tripoliwisconsin.org/), or from the National Association of Rocketry (NAR: https://www.nar.org/). Only those rocketeers possessing L3 certification are authorized to fly the largest classes of motors. Rocket motors are broadly categorized by the total energy produced … Continue reading FORUM: Level-3

FORUM: BAR

My fascination with hobby rocketry began in Arizona (4th grade), and resurfaced in Virginia (7th grade): both times I experimented with low-power rockets. I never wished to stop working with rockets, but my family moved often—usually to places which were not amenable to the flying of model rockets. Fast-forward to 2005, and I just survived … Continue reading FORUM: BAR

FORUM: Chicago Mini-Tsunami

A large body of research from around the globe reports that same-day barometric pressure and temperature are related to bone and muscle pain ratings made by humans. • https://odajournal.com/2013/09/20/modeling-individual-reactivity-in-serial-designs-changes-in-weather-and-physical-symptoms-in-fibromyalgia/. This is as (perhaps even more) apropos for bony fresh- and salt-water fish, and it may be particularly true for freshwater species living in shallow, constricted … Continue reading FORUM: Chicago Mini-Tsunami

FORUM: Power-Lining Coho Salmon

Coho salmon are a popular game fish species in the States bordering Lake Michigan, including Illinois (https://www.ifishillinois.org/species/CHO.php); Michigan (https://bettsguideservice.com/michigan-weekly-dnr-fishing-reports-for-salmon/); Indiana (https://www.lake-link.com/articles/6/silver-run-lake-michigan-coho-migration/); and last but not least, Wisconsin (https://dnr.wi.gov/topic/fishing/documents/species/cohosalmon.pdf). Coho are a prized species targeted by shore anglers. Catching them from shore is possible because small groups of coho cruise the shoreline within the range of … Continue reading FORUM: Power-Lining Coho Salmon

FORUM: Match the Hatch

My fishing compadre Tony taught me to fish Lake Michigan salmonids from shore, in locations within a one-day fishing/round-trip-car-drive from northern Chicago. Typically the best fishing required travelling south to Michigan (Berrien Springs at the Dam, St. Joseph River), or travelling north to Wisconsin (Waukegan, Kenosha). In our first trip we successfully targeted Chinook salmon … Continue reading FORUM: Match the Hatch

FORUM: King Salmon in the Root River

For decades I monitored the start of the fall salmonid spawn run in north-eastern Illinois and south-eastern Wisconsin, along dammed lake-run rivers (and one power-plant discharge channel) spilling into Lake Michigan. When the water flow rate is high these streams propel scents associated with spawning fish out into the Lake, leaving a “trail of crumbs” … Continue reading FORUM: King Salmon in the Root River

Mask Mandates Can Rapidly and Efficiently Limit COVID-19 Spread: Month-Over-Month Effectiveness of Governmental Policies in Reducing the Number of New COVID-19 Cases in 37 US States and the District of Columbia

Michael J. Maloney, Nathaniel J. Rhodes & Paul R. Yarnold Proof School, Midwestern University & Optimal Data Analysis LLC SARS-CoV-2 is the beta-coronavirus responsible for COVID-19. Facemask use has been qualitatively associated with reduced COVID-19 cases, but no study has quantitatively assessed the impact of government mask mandates (MM) on new COVID-19 cases across multiple … Continue reading Mask Mandates Can Rapidly and Efficiently Limit COVID-19 Spread: Month-Over-Month Effectiveness of Governmental Policies in Reducing the Number of New COVID-19 Cases in 37 US States and the District of Columbia

Novometric Temporal Analysis of Monthly Otolaryngology Service Consults Over Five Consecutive Years

Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D. Optimal Data Analysis, LLC Statistically unmotivated exploratory parametric analysis reported that the mean number of monthly consults at an academic otolaryngology service in 2014-2015 was significantly lower than in 2017-2018, suggesting a trend involving increasing numbers of consults over time. Evaluating these data, exploratory novometric temporal analysis identified a globally optimal … Continue reading Novometric Temporal Analysis of Monthly Otolaryngology Service Consults Over Five Consecutive Years