Paul R. Yarnold

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

A total of 6,005 hospital patients rated their satisfaction with time taken for a nurse to respond to the call button (1=very dissatisfied; 2=somewhat dissatisfied; 3=neutral; 4=somewhat satisfied; 5=very satisfied). Responses were consolidated into four successive quarters (3rd and 4th Quarters of 1989, 1st and 2nd Quarters of 1990). Novometric analysis was used to evaluate statistical and ecological significance of each of the possible comparisons between pairings of four quarters in this consolidated temporal series.

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Paul R. Yarnold

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

Cross-classification tables may be created for one or more “cohorts”— groups of observations defined by a common event such as the year of one’s birth, graduation, employment, marriage, disease diagnosis or incarceration—and assessed at two or more points in time on one or more variables reflecting the substantive focus of the study. This article demonstrates exploratory maximum-accuracy evaluation of cohort, aging, and time effects for a standard cohort table.

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Paul R. Yarnold

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

When a first-order Markov model cannot be confirmed one approach is subdividing the sample into strata each having a distinct set of transition probabilities. This note demonstrates the use of ODA to assess whether stratification resulted in significantly different transition matrices.

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Paul R. Yarnold

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

This note demonstrates the use of ODA to test the hypothesis of an underlying second-order Markovian process.

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Paul R. Yarnold

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

Sufficiently iterated over time periods a first order Markovian change process defined by a constant transition matrix yields a steady state. Consecutive transition matrices are compared by Goodman’s chi-square test to assess if a steady state has been achieved. This note demonstrates the analogous use of ODA to assess if such transition matrices differ.

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Ariel Linden & Paul R. Yarnold

Linden Consulting Group, LLC & Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

Diagnostic screening tests are used to predict an individual’s graduated disease status which is measured on an ordered scale assessing disease progression (severity of illness). Maximizing the predictive accuracy of the diagnostic or screening test is paramount to correctly identifying an individual’s actual score along the ordered continuum. The present study compares two approaches for mapping a statistical model to a diagnostic index in order to make accurate outcome predictions for individuals. The application involves a dataset composed of multiple biomedical voice measurements for 42 individuals with early-stage Parkinson’s disease, who completed a six-month trial of a device for remote symptom progression telemonitoring. For 16 voice measures, each treated as a main effect, ordinary least-squares regression is used to predict baseline motor impairment component score. ODA is used to maximize accuracy of the regression model when it is mapped to the diagnostic index, and results are compared with accuracy achieved by the novometric solution.

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Ariel Linden & Paul R. Yarnold

Linden Consulting Group, LLC & Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

Maximizing the discriminatory accuracy of a diagnostic or screening test is paramount to correctly identifying individuals with vs. without the disease or disease marker. In this paper we demonstrate the use of ODA to identify the optimal cut-point which best discriminates between those with vs. without the disease (or marker) under study, for any diagnostic test. We illustrate this methodology using a dataset composed of a range of repeated biomedical voice measurements from 31 people, 23 with Parkinson’s disease (PD). A logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability that each observation was from a person with vs. without PD as a function of 22 voice measurement variables, entered in the model as main effects only. Five different methods for computing a diagnostic cut-point on estimated probability are compared.

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