Novometric Temporal Analysis of Monthly Otolaryngology Service Consults Over Five Consecutive Years

Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D.

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

Statistically unmotivated exploratory parametric analysis reported that the mean number of monthly consults at an academic otolaryngology service in 2014-2015 was significantly lower than in 2017-2018, suggesting a trend involving increasing numbers of consults over time. Evaluating these data, exploratory novometric temporal analysis identified a globally optimal (GO) model achieving 100% accurate discrimination in training and leave-one-out (LOO) jackknife validity analysis: all 25 months before April 2016 had <125 consults/month, and all 33 months after March 2016 had >155 consults/month (ESS=100, p<0.0001). A discontinuity thus occurred in the series between March and April in 2016.

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