Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D.
Optimal Data Analysis, LLC
Statistically unmotivated exploratory parametric analysis reported that the mean number of monthly consults at an academic otolaryngology service in 2014-2015 was significantly lower than in 2017-2018, suggesting a trend involving increasing numbers of consults over time. Evaluating these data, exploratory novometric temporal analysis identified a globally optimal (GO) model achieving 100% accurate discrimination in training and leave-one-out (LOO) jackknife validity analysis: all 25 months before April 2016 had <125 consults/month, and all 33 months after March 2016 had >155 consults/month (ESS=100, p<0.0001). A discontinuity thus occurred in the series between March and April in 2016.