Paul R. Yarnold & Robert C. Soltysik
Optimal Data Analysis, LLC
Ordered series involving a dichotomous (binary) variable are widely used to describe changes in phenomena which occur across time. Examples of such series include the percentage of a sample or population each year (or other unit of time) that marries, dies, or is arrested. This article demonstrates how UniODA is used for such designs to test a confirmatory (a priori), omnibus (overall), optimal (maximum-accuracy) hypothesis, subsequently disentangled by a confirmatory (if hypotheses are composed) or otherwise by an exploratory (post hoc) optimal range test. This methodology is demonstrated with an example assessing the effect of airborne beta nuclear radiation emanating from the Fukushima nuclear meltdown on the risk of congenital hypothyroidism (CH) for newborns in California in the years 2011-2012.