Predicting Divorce: The Role of Gender, and of Pre- and Extra-Marital Sex

Paul R. Yarnold

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

A survey-based study comparing N = 494 divorcees and N = 542 married people collected binary data for three attributes: respondent gender; if the respondent reported having pre-marital sex (PMS); and if the respondent reported having extra-marital sex (EMS). Analysis via globally-optimal CTA (GO-CTA) identified a moderately strong (ESS = 26.3) model that employed both sexual behavior attributes to correctly classify 83.4% of married and 42.9% of divorced people.

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