Emergency Severity Index (Version 3) Score Predicts Hospital Admission

Paul R. Yarnold & Robert C. Soltysik

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC

Hospital admission status, Emergency Severity Index (ESI) Version 3 triage score, and binary indicators of whether lab work or radiological examinations were completed in the Emergency Department (ED), were available for 160,471 patients seen over a three-year period in the ED of a leading community teaching hospital in Toronto. Hierarchical CTA conducted for these data yielded ESS=63.8, a relatively strong effect. The model correctly classified 80.2% of the admitted patients, and 83.6% of the patients who weren’t admitted. The model was correct 60.1% of the time that it predicted that a patient would be admitted, and correct 93.2% of the time that it predicted that a patient wouldn’t be admitted.

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