Manual vs. Automated CTA: Predicting Freshman Attrition

Manual vs. Automated CTA: Predicting Freshman Attrition

Paul R. Yarnold, Ph.D., Fred B. Bryant, Ph.D., and Jennifer Howard Smith, Ph.D.

Optimal Data Analysis, LLC, Loyola University Chicago, Applied Research Solutions, Inc.

The enumerated model was 20% more accurate, but 43% less parsimonious and 31% less efficient than the manually-derived model. Granularity afforded by the enumerated model enabled prediction of seven of eight incoming freshmen who left college. Substantive, policy, and methodological implications are considered.

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